By Gerald Seib at The Wall Street Journal
Most presidential elections turn on the economy, but that figures to be especially true this time. Recent weeks have brought a few, tentative signs that the nation's bleak jobs picture may be improving, which would certainly help the president. Still, the unemployment rate stands at an unhealthy 8.6%, and few analysts think it will drop fast enough to reach the 7.4% rate that prevailed when Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984, or even the 7.5% when Jimmy Carter lost his re-election bid in 1980. Not since Franklin Roosevelt won re-election in 1936 has a president faced a worse jobless situation.
More broadly, Mr. Reagan set the modern standard for gauging the economic mood of voters in an election year in that 1980 race, when he unseated Mr. Carter in large measure by asking voters simply: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" If the coming election is determined by that maxim, or by most traditional measures, President Obama would seem to face bleak prospects.
Read more...
Monday, December 26, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
Romney: Obama's 8 percent jobless rate falls short
By Steve Holland at The Chicago Tribune
"He now seems to think that 8 percent unemployment would be a great achievement. I'm sorry, 8 percent is an excessive number for unemployment in this country and returning to 8 percent does not suggest a highly successful presidency," Romney told Reuters in an interview aboard his campaign bus as it rolled through New Hampshire.
"This has been the longest recovery from recession that we've seen since (Depression-era President Herbert) Hoover and he has failed to get Americans back to work," he said.
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"He now seems to think that 8 percent unemployment would be a great achievement. I'm sorry, 8 percent is an excessive number for unemployment in this country and returning to 8 percent does not suggest a highly successful presidency," Romney told Reuters in an interview aboard his campaign bus as it rolled through New Hampshire.
"This has been the longest recovery from recession that we've seen since (Depression-era President Herbert) Hoover and he has failed to get Americans back to work," he said.
Read more...
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Tehran and Obama’s Reelection
By Daniel Pipes via The Algemeiner
First a look back: Iran’s mullahs already has one opportunity to affect American politics, in 1980. Their seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran for 444 days haunted President Jimmy Carter’s reelection campaign and – thanks to such developments as yellow ribbons, a “Rose Garden” strategy, a failed rescue operation, and ABC’s America Held Hostage program – contributed to his defeat. Ayatollah Khomeini rebuffed Carter’s hopes for an “October surprise” release of the hostages and twisted the knife one final time by freeing them exactly as Ronald Reagan took the presidential oath.
Today, Iran has two potential roles in Obama’s reelection campaign, as disrupter in Iraq or as target of U.S. attacks. Let’s look at each of them:
Read more...
First a look back: Iran’s mullahs already has one opportunity to affect American politics, in 1980. Their seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran for 444 days haunted President Jimmy Carter’s reelection campaign and – thanks to such developments as yellow ribbons, a “Rose Garden” strategy, a failed rescue operation, and ABC’s America Held Hostage program – contributed to his defeat. Ayatollah Khomeini rebuffed Carter’s hopes for an “October surprise” release of the hostages and twisted the knife one final time by freeing them exactly as Ronald Reagan took the presidential oath.
Today, Iran has two potential roles in Obama’s reelection campaign, as disrupter in Iraq or as target of U.S. attacks. Let’s look at each of them:
Read more...
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
A Very Beatable President
By Jay Cost at The Weekly Standard
Team Obama will basically make the same case: The Republican program is at its core radical and anti-American. Will it work for them? The best way to answer this question is with another question: Did it work for Hoover?
The Obama strategy as it has developed is insufficient to produce reelection. The president is going to need assistance, either from more robust growth or a fumble by the Republicans. Bad demographic math, phony activism, and Hooveresque demagoguery is not enough to win.
Read more...
Team Obama will basically make the same case: The Republican program is at its core radical and anti-American. Will it work for them? The best way to answer this question is with another question: Did it work for Hoover?
The Obama strategy as it has developed is insufficient to produce reelection. The president is going to need assistance, either from more robust growth or a fumble by the Republicans. Bad demographic math, phony activism, and Hooveresque demagoguery is not enough to win.
Read more...
Monday, December 19, 2011
On second thought...
By Jay Evensen at The Deseret News
Memo to military scientists: Next time you design a drone, how about including a self-destruct mechanism? If the old Mission Impossible gang could do it 40 years ago, so can you.
President Obama responded to the Iranian drone capture by politely asking for it back. Somewhere, Jimmy Carter is wondering, "Why didn't I think of that?"
Hey, it never hurts to ask, right? Next up, President Obama asks North Korea for the USS Pueblo back. Pretty please?
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Memo to military scientists: Next time you design a drone, how about including a self-destruct mechanism? If the old Mission Impossible gang could do it 40 years ago, so can you.
President Obama responded to the Iranian drone capture by politely asking for it back. Somewhere, Jimmy Carter is wondering, "Why didn't I think of that?"
Hey, it never hurts to ask, right? Next up, President Obama asks North Korea for the USS Pueblo back. Pretty please?
Read more...
Friday, December 16, 2011
Candidates Stake Iowa Debate on Electability, Leadership
By FoxNews.com
But if electability had been the question for primary candidates in 1979, Ronald Reagan would have never become president, Newt Gingrich argued Thursday, saying that his debating skills against President Obama will outshine any earlier fouls he has made.
Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by a larger margin than Franklin Delano Roosevelt beat Herbert Hoover in 1932, Gingrich, a longtime history professor, said, completing his comparison.
Read more...
But if electability had been the question for primary candidates in 1979, Ronald Reagan would have never become president, Newt Gingrich argued Thursday, saying that his debating skills against President Obama will outshine any earlier fouls he has made.
Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by a larger margin than Franklin Delano Roosevelt beat Herbert Hoover in 1932, Gingrich, a longtime history professor, said, completing his comparison.
Read more...
Thursday, December 15, 2011
President Gingrich?
By Al Checchi at The Huffington Post
Newt Gingrich appears no more unelectable today than Ronald Reagan at a similar point in 1980. Similarly Barack Obama appears no more re-electable than did President Carter. History teaches that desperate times often give rise to desperate measures. Barring a significant third party spoiler, contrary to much Democratic opinion, in troubled times like this, the sharper the philosophical contrast drawn between the challenger and the incumbent, the more likely people may opt for the "unthinkable."
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Newt Gingrich appears no more unelectable today than Ronald Reagan at a similar point in 1980. Similarly Barack Obama appears no more re-electable than did President Carter. History teaches that desperate times often give rise to desperate measures. Barring a significant third party spoiler, contrary to much Democratic opinion, in troubled times like this, the sharper the philosophical contrast drawn between the challenger and the incumbent, the more likely people may opt for the "unthinkable."
Read more...
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Pollsters Check Obama: Can He Get to 50 Percent Approval?
By Matt Negrin at ABCNews.com
Since the middle of July, the weekly average of Obama’s approval rating has been between 40 and 43 percent, according to Gallup, which organized the panel for the media. The pollsters pointed to two recent presidents who didn’t earn a second term to make the case for the importance of a 50-percent threshold: Just before Election Day, George H.W. Bush had a 34 percent rating, and Jimmy Carter was at 37 percent.
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Since the middle of July, the weekly average of Obama’s approval rating has been between 40 and 43 percent, according to Gallup, which organized the panel for the media. The pollsters pointed to two recent presidents who didn’t earn a second term to make the case for the importance of a 50-percent threshold: Just before Election Day, George H.W. Bush had a 34 percent rating, and Jimmy Carter was at 37 percent.
Read more...
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Romney Out in Front
By Carl Thomas at The Chicago Tribune
"The president has been in office three years and his record is entirely fair game. I think the American people know his record is the worst we've seen since (Herbert) Hoover. I will be relentless in reminding Americans that (Obama) promised to hold unemployment below 8 percent, if we let him borrow $1 trillion. He did the borrowing, but unemployment has not been below 8 percent."
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"The president has been in office three years and his record is entirely fair game. I think the American people know his record is the worst we've seen since (Herbert) Hoover. I will be relentless in reminding Americans that (Obama) promised to hold unemployment below 8 percent, if we let him borrow $1 trillion. He did the borrowing, but unemployment has not been below 8 percent."
Read more...
Monday, December 12, 2011
Craving Another Great Depression
By Ralph R. Reiland at The American Spectator
"From 1929 to 1940, from Hoover to Roosevelt, government intervention helped make the Depression Great," writes Amity Shlaes in The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression. "The trouble, however, was not merely the new policies that were implemented but also the threat of additional, unknown, policies. Fear froze the economy, but that uncertainty itself might have a cost was something the young experimenters simply did not consider."
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"From 1929 to 1940, from Hoover to Roosevelt, government intervention helped make the Depression Great," writes Amity Shlaes in The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression. "The trouble, however, was not merely the new policies that were implemented but also the threat of additional, unknown, policies. Fear froze the economy, but that uncertainty itself might have a cost was something the young experimenters simply did not consider."
Read more...
Friday, December 9, 2011
The President Who Never Was
By Victor Davis Hanson at Pajamas Media
How odd that Obama has tried on every mask except one that naturally fits him, that of Jimmy Carter. Carter, remember, railed about luxury boats and three-martini lunches, as if that kind of indulgence had sent the economy into 8% unemployment, 12% inflation, and 15% interest rates. Our problem was always Nixon of old, never Carter of the present. Beneath the utopian Christian caring was the mean streak and petulance; Carter, you see, loved humanity but not humans.
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How odd that Obama has tried on every mask except one that naturally fits him, that of Jimmy Carter. Carter, remember, railed about luxury boats and three-martini lunches, as if that kind of indulgence had sent the economy into 8% unemployment, 12% inflation, and 15% interest rates. Our problem was always Nixon of old, never Carter of the present. Beneath the utopian Christian caring was the mean streak and petulance; Carter, you see, loved humanity but not humans.
Read more...
Reince Priebus: Roosevelt’s words for Obama
Op-Ed By Reince Priebus via The Wichita Eagle
Plagued by near-daily comparisons to Jimmy Carter, President Obama decided it’s time to try emulating a more popular president. So the White House dug up Teddy Roosevelt’s 101-year-old "New Nationalism" speech and threw together a trip to the town where he delivered it in August 1910 — Osawatomie.
In their attempt to find a new campaign theme, Team Obama unsurprisingly ignored these all-too-relevant words from 1910: "A broken promise is bad enough in private life. It is worse in the field of politics."
...But today, where there was to be "hope" there is hopelessness. And where there was to be "change" we are left longing for a change in direction. In short, the foundational promise of the Obama presidency has been broken.
Read more...
Plagued by near-daily comparisons to Jimmy Carter, President Obama decided it’s time to try emulating a more popular president. So the White House dug up Teddy Roosevelt’s 101-year-old "New Nationalism" speech and threw together a trip to the town where he delivered it in August 1910 — Osawatomie.
In their attempt to find a new campaign theme, Team Obama unsurprisingly ignored these all-too-relevant words from 1910: "A broken promise is bad enough in private life. It is worse in the field of politics."
...But today, where there was to be "hope" there is hopelessness. And where there was to be "change" we are left longing for a change in direction. In short, the foundational promise of the Obama presidency has been broken.
Read more...
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Christie: Obama 'has made America smaller in the eyes of the world'
By Matt Friedman at The New Jersey Star-Ledger
Still, Christie didn’t target Gingrich or any other Republican rivals. Instead, he aimed squarely at Obama, whom in recent days he has likened to former President Jimmy Carter and called a "bystander in the Oval Office."
"For the last three years, we’ve had a president who doesn’t know how to lead, doesn’t know who he is, won’t fight for what he believes in and will not — will not — make America greater," Christie said. "In fact, has made America smaller in the eyes of the rest of the world."
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Still, Christie didn’t target Gingrich or any other Republican rivals. Instead, he aimed squarely at Obama, whom in recent days he has likened to former President Jimmy Carter and called a "bystander in the Oval Office."
"For the last three years, we’ve had a president who doesn’t know how to lead, doesn’t know who he is, won’t fight for what he believes in and will not — will not — make America greater," Christie said. "In fact, has made America smaller in the eyes of the rest of the world."
Read more...
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Organizing the Takers Against the Makers
By Peter Ferrara at The American Spectator
The brilliant Chavistas at the Center for American Progress have revealed the reelection strategy for President Jimmy Carter II. This time they are going to get the 1980 election right. Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin enlighten us with their publication, "The Path to 270: Demographics versus Economics in the 2012 Presidential Election."
Read more...
The brilliant Chavistas at the Center for American Progress have revealed the reelection strategy for President Jimmy Carter II. This time they are going to get the 1980 election right. Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin enlighten us with their publication, "The Path to 270: Demographics versus Economics in the 2012 Presidential Election."
Read more...
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
The true costs of Keynes
By Martin Hutchinson at Asia Times Online
Those costs are considerable. In the 1930s, US president Herbert Hoover's reckless expansion of government spending, including loans to cronies through the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, caused further slowdown in the economy, which was exacerbated by his dreadful early 1932 increase in the top marginal rate of tax from 25% to 63%.
In the recent unpleasantness, fiscal stimulus worldwide initially appeared merely ineffective. By diverting resources from the productive private sector to unproductive public sector boondoggles it reduced long-term output. In the US case, the Barack Obama stimulus converted a vigorous recovery into an anemic one; only in the third quarter of 2011, after the effects of stimulus had begun to wear off, did output begin to accelerate and unemployment trend down (in this case we should celebrate public sector job losses and declines in public sector output, since they free up resources for healthy private sector growth!).
However, with the euro crisis it has become clear that fiscal stimulus, if excessive, has an exponentially adverse effect. By increasing deficits to unsustainable levels, it precipitates bond market fears about the state's credit risk. Naturally, that strangles credit availability to almost all entities domiciled in the country concerned.
Read more...
Those costs are considerable. In the 1930s, US president Herbert Hoover's reckless expansion of government spending, including loans to cronies through the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, caused further slowdown in the economy, which was exacerbated by his dreadful early 1932 increase in the top marginal rate of tax from 25% to 63%.
In the recent unpleasantness, fiscal stimulus worldwide initially appeared merely ineffective. By diverting resources from the productive private sector to unproductive public sector boondoggles it reduced long-term output. In the US case, the Barack Obama stimulus converted a vigorous recovery into an anemic one; only in the third quarter of 2011, after the effects of stimulus had begun to wear off, did output begin to accelerate and unemployment trend down (in this case we should celebrate public sector job losses and declines in public sector output, since they free up resources for healthy private sector growth!).
However, with the euro crisis it has become clear that fiscal stimulus, if excessive, has an exponentially adverse effect. By increasing deficits to unsustainable levels, it precipitates bond market fears about the state's credit risk. Naturally, that strangles credit availability to almost all entities domiciled in the country concerned.
Read more...
Monday, December 5, 2011
‘Carter’ is new GOP epithet for Obama
By Dave Boyer at The Washington Times
Perhaps it’s a risk for any incumbent Democratic president running for re-election, but President Obama now finds himself being compared by Republicans to former President Jimmy Carter.
“Obama’s America - Malazy,” trumpets a new ad by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, combining Mr. Carter’s “malaise” speech with Mr. Obama’s recent characterization of America as “lazy” in the pursuit of foreign investors. The ad is titled “Two presidents, one excuse.”
Read more...
Perhaps it’s a risk for any incumbent Democratic president running for re-election, but President Obama now finds himself being compared by Republicans to former President Jimmy Carter.
“Obama’s America - Malazy,” trumpets a new ad by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, combining Mr. Carter’s “malaise” speech with Mr. Obama’s recent characterization of America as “lazy” in the pursuit of foreign investors. The ad is titled “Two presidents, one excuse.”
Read more...
Friday, December 2, 2011
The GOP’s Jimmy Carter fixation
By Aaron Blake at the Washington Post
Don’t look now, but all of a sudden, Republicans are running against Jimmy Carter again. Or at least trying to.
To wit:
* The GOP gleefully pointed to a Gallup poll earlier this week that showed President Obama’s numbers dipping below Carter’s at the same point in their respective terms.
* The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a web video Wednesday titled “Malazy” – a hybrid of Carter’s “malaise” and Obama’s “lazy” quotes.
Read more...
Don’t look now, but all of a sudden, Republicans are running against Jimmy Carter again. Or at least trying to.
To wit:
* The GOP gleefully pointed to a Gallup poll earlier this week that showed President Obama’s numbers dipping below Carter’s at the same point in their respective terms.
* The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a web video Wednesday titled “Malazy” – a hybrid of Carter’s “malaise” and Obama’s “lazy” quotes.
Read more...
Thursday, December 1, 2011
'They Don't Need Our Votes'
By James Taranto at The Wall Street Journal
We're not saying any of these eventualities are likely, or that they would necessarily help Obama. (Jimmy Carter had an international crisis, an "extreme" challenger, and a third-party GOP candidate, and he lost badly anyway.) But a necessary condition for an Obama victory is that his own party not throw in the towel months before the election.
Read more...
We're not saying any of these eventualities are likely, or that they would necessarily help Obama. (Jimmy Carter had an international crisis, an "extreme" challenger, and a third-party GOP candidate, and he lost badly anyway.) But a necessary condition for an Obama victory is that his own party not throw in the towel months before the election.
Read more...
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