By Gerald Seib at The Wall Street Journal
Most presidential elections turn on the economy, but that figures to be especially true this time. Recent weeks have brought a few, tentative signs that the nation's bleak jobs picture may be improving, which would certainly help the president. Still, the unemployment rate stands at an unhealthy 8.6%, and few analysts think it will drop fast enough to reach the 7.4% rate that prevailed when Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984, or even the 7.5% when Jimmy Carter lost his re-election bid in 1980. Not since Franklin Roosevelt won re-election in 1936 has a president faced a worse jobless situation.
More broadly, Mr. Reagan set the modern standard for gauging the economic mood of voters in an election year in that 1980 race, when he unseated Mr. Carter in large measure by asking voters simply: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" If the coming election is determined by that maxim, or by most traditional measures, President Obama would seem to face bleak prospects.
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Monday, December 26, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
Romney: Obama's 8 percent jobless rate falls short
By Steve Holland at The Chicago Tribune
"He now seems to think that 8 percent unemployment would be a great achievement. I'm sorry, 8 percent is an excessive number for unemployment in this country and returning to 8 percent does not suggest a highly successful presidency," Romney told Reuters in an interview aboard his campaign bus as it rolled through New Hampshire.
"This has been the longest recovery from recession that we've seen since (Depression-era President Herbert) Hoover and he has failed to get Americans back to work," he said.
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"He now seems to think that 8 percent unemployment would be a great achievement. I'm sorry, 8 percent is an excessive number for unemployment in this country and returning to 8 percent does not suggest a highly successful presidency," Romney told Reuters in an interview aboard his campaign bus as it rolled through New Hampshire.
"This has been the longest recovery from recession that we've seen since (Depression-era President Herbert) Hoover and he has failed to get Americans back to work," he said.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Tehran and Obama’s Reelection
By Daniel Pipes via The Algemeiner
First a look back: Iran’s mullahs already has one opportunity to affect American politics, in 1980. Their seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran for 444 days haunted President Jimmy Carter’s reelection campaign and – thanks to such developments as yellow ribbons, a “Rose Garden” strategy, a failed rescue operation, and ABC’s America Held Hostage program – contributed to his defeat. Ayatollah Khomeini rebuffed Carter’s hopes for an “October surprise” release of the hostages and twisted the knife one final time by freeing them exactly as Ronald Reagan took the presidential oath.
Today, Iran has two potential roles in Obama’s reelection campaign, as disrupter in Iraq or as target of U.S. attacks. Let’s look at each of them:
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First a look back: Iran’s mullahs already has one opportunity to affect American politics, in 1980. Their seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran for 444 days haunted President Jimmy Carter’s reelection campaign and – thanks to such developments as yellow ribbons, a “Rose Garden” strategy, a failed rescue operation, and ABC’s America Held Hostage program – contributed to his defeat. Ayatollah Khomeini rebuffed Carter’s hopes for an “October surprise” release of the hostages and twisted the knife one final time by freeing them exactly as Ronald Reagan took the presidential oath.
Today, Iran has two potential roles in Obama’s reelection campaign, as disrupter in Iraq or as target of U.S. attacks. Let’s look at each of them:
Read more...
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
A Very Beatable President
By Jay Cost at The Weekly Standard
Team Obama will basically make the same case: The Republican program is at its core radical and anti-American. Will it work for them? The best way to answer this question is with another question: Did it work for Hoover?
The Obama strategy as it has developed is insufficient to produce reelection. The president is going to need assistance, either from more robust growth or a fumble by the Republicans. Bad demographic math, phony activism, and Hooveresque demagoguery is not enough to win.
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Team Obama will basically make the same case: The Republican program is at its core radical and anti-American. Will it work for them? The best way to answer this question is with another question: Did it work for Hoover?
The Obama strategy as it has developed is insufficient to produce reelection. The president is going to need assistance, either from more robust growth or a fumble by the Republicans. Bad demographic math, phony activism, and Hooveresque demagoguery is not enough to win.
Read more...
Monday, December 19, 2011
On second thought...
By Jay Evensen at The Deseret News
Memo to military scientists: Next time you design a drone, how about including a self-destruct mechanism? If the old Mission Impossible gang could do it 40 years ago, so can you.
President Obama responded to the Iranian drone capture by politely asking for it back. Somewhere, Jimmy Carter is wondering, "Why didn't I think of that?"
Hey, it never hurts to ask, right? Next up, President Obama asks North Korea for the USS Pueblo back. Pretty please?
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Memo to military scientists: Next time you design a drone, how about including a self-destruct mechanism? If the old Mission Impossible gang could do it 40 years ago, so can you.
President Obama responded to the Iranian drone capture by politely asking for it back. Somewhere, Jimmy Carter is wondering, "Why didn't I think of that?"
Hey, it never hurts to ask, right? Next up, President Obama asks North Korea for the USS Pueblo back. Pretty please?
Read more...
Friday, December 16, 2011
Candidates Stake Iowa Debate on Electability, Leadership
By FoxNews.com
But if electability had been the question for primary candidates in 1979, Ronald Reagan would have never become president, Newt Gingrich argued Thursday, saying that his debating skills against President Obama will outshine any earlier fouls he has made.
Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by a larger margin than Franklin Delano Roosevelt beat Herbert Hoover in 1932, Gingrich, a longtime history professor, said, completing his comparison.
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But if electability had been the question for primary candidates in 1979, Ronald Reagan would have never become president, Newt Gingrich argued Thursday, saying that his debating skills against President Obama will outshine any earlier fouls he has made.
Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by a larger margin than Franklin Delano Roosevelt beat Herbert Hoover in 1932, Gingrich, a longtime history professor, said, completing his comparison.
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Thursday, December 15, 2011
President Gingrich?
By Al Checchi at The Huffington Post
Newt Gingrich appears no more unelectable today than Ronald Reagan at a similar point in 1980. Similarly Barack Obama appears no more re-electable than did President Carter. History teaches that desperate times often give rise to desperate measures. Barring a significant third party spoiler, contrary to much Democratic opinion, in troubled times like this, the sharper the philosophical contrast drawn between the challenger and the incumbent, the more likely people may opt for the "unthinkable."
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Newt Gingrich appears no more unelectable today than Ronald Reagan at a similar point in 1980. Similarly Barack Obama appears no more re-electable than did President Carter. History teaches that desperate times often give rise to desperate measures. Barring a significant third party spoiler, contrary to much Democratic opinion, in troubled times like this, the sharper the philosophical contrast drawn between the challenger and the incumbent, the more likely people may opt for the "unthinkable."
Read more...
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